Flood protection and management: quo vadimus?

نویسندگان

  • ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ
  • KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI
چکیده

In the last decade, there have been many destructive floods in various parts of the world. Despite the extensive investment in flood control works, neither flood occurrences nor damages are decreasing. A possible consequence of climate change is an increased frequency of extreme meteorological events that may cause floods. Discussion is offered of some recent large floods in the world and of the experiences in combating floods in Japan. Floods change over time as societies change. There is no single universal remedy against floods and site-specific local efforts are necessary. It is essential to undertake damage mitigation measures together with physical control measures for flood management in an integrated approach, using a mixture of structural and non-structural means. A more disaster conscious society needs to be built with better preparedness and safe-fail (safe in failure) rather than, unrealistic, fail-safe (safe from failure) design of flood defences. Protection et aménagement contre les inondations: quo vadimus? Résumé Au cours des années 90, on a pu déplorer de par le monde de nombreuses inondations catastrophiques et des dommages considérables malgré les importants investissements consentis dans ce domaine. Une modification climatique est peut être à l'origine d'une augmentation de la fréquence des événements météorologiques extrêmes pouvant causer les inondations. Nous proposons des réflexions à propos de quelques grandes inondations récentes en diverses parties du monde ainsi que des leçons tirées de la lutte contre les inondations au Japon. Notre vision des inondations varie selon les époques, comme varient les sociétés. Il n'y a pas de remède universel contre les inondations. Des efforts locaux sont nécessaires qui dépendent de la spécificité du site considéré. Il est essentiel de prendre des mesures pour diminuer les dommages, combinées à des aménagements permettant une gestion intégrée des inondations grâce à une panoplie d'outils faisant ou non appel au génie civil. Il faut développer la conscience sociale de la vulnérabilité, en préparant plus à la possibilité d'échec des mesures de protection qu'en cultivant un sentiment irréaliste de protection absolue.

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تاریخ انتشار 1999